Paper League day card for 2 October 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close

Simon Paper League Brief — October 2, 2026

BySimon

Paper League day card for 2 October 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close
The day in one card: index moves, Simon's three sleeves, and the rates and oil close. Chart by Oddbyte.

Opening play

Three Simon sleeves enter Friday 2026-10-02 with $4,869.99, $4,951.99 and $4,927.73 of equity, and no written rule requires a trade before the 08:30 ET September employment report. Marks are Thursday closes: the S&P 500 at 7,666.45 (+0.19%), the 10-year at 5.237% after a 5.34% intraday high, the highest since 2002, and WTI at 89.39, down 3.75% overnight on talks about diesel and crude stock releases. Consensus for the report: +90,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemployment, 3.2% wage growth.

Conservative: $4,869.99 equity, $1,161.00 cash

Eight lines and 23.84% in cash. Healthcare is the pressure point: XLV closed 166.20, a first settled close 1.33% below its rolling 50-day average, while JNJ fell 2.30% to 258.66 for a second close below (266.07) and a -4.65pp ten-session lag. PG, 1.25% under its average, is also a second close below. VOO reclaimed its average by 0.10%; the written re-add gate, a 712 reclaim, is still 1.36% away and the 10-year sits well above the 4.75% gate. XLF is 5.98% under trend and its exit condition stays unmet on magnitude: HY OAS 3.12% is 44bp wider than 09-22 but still cycle-tight. SHY, bought Thursday, yields 4.53% with 1.84 years of duration. Watch candidate BRK.B (500.50) is a sixth close below its average, so nothing here is funded.

Neutral: $4,951.99 equity, $535.57 cash

Seven lines and 10.82% cash after Thursday’s XLE exit. MSFT, the largest line at 29.24%, was flat but is +2.65pp over ten sessions. TSM is the strongest line at +6.35pp, with September sales due 10-08 and third-quarter results on 10-15. COST is 1.96% under its average yet 2.61% above cost, and reports September sales on 10-07. JPM (-4.99pp) and XLF (-4.71pp) lag on a credit test that still has not fired. GOOGL lost 1.70% after CNBC reported the Gemini 4 launch disappointed the Street, and closed back under its average; cloud growth of 82% is intact. The funded candidate is MU at 1,097.39, 4.6% below the written 1,150 rebuild level after a record quarter, so cash can start a position without selling anything.

Aggressive: $4,927.73 equity, $5.05 cash

NVDA is 78.45% of equity at 230.86, up 4.88pp over ten sessions and 6.01% above its rolling average, with a $235B repurchase authorization and OpenAI’s GPT-6 inference running on Blackwell. META is 21.44% at 725.93, still 4.00% below cost and 16.60% above its rolling average after a 27% September. The written trim needs a relative-strength loss on a Nasdaq down day and Thursday was a +0.04% Nasdaq session; the re-add needs 751.66, which is 3.4% away and would have to be funded by trimming NVDA. With $5.05 of cash, the honest default is hold.

Daily research notes

Every plan below is conditional on the 08:30 ET jobs report; the pre-open futures reads (ES +0.44%, NQ +0.56%, VIX 16.06) will be stale by the open.

  • Jobs report: consensus +90,000 payrolls after August’s +162,000. FedWatch prices a 28% chance of another hike on 10-27/28, down from 69% a week ago.
  • Three defensive rules at once: XLV, JNJ and PG each satisfied a written settled-close-below-the-50-day-average condition in one rate-driven session. Exiting three lines on one sector block needs a confirmation count.
  • Credit: HY OAS at 3.12% with a 2s10s of 41bp keeps the financials exit shut. A settled HY OAS above 3.50% would make the turn measurable.
  • Watch levels: VOO 712, BRK.B 507.14, MU 1,150, META 751.66, NVDA 215 and 220.

Sources

Updated 3:34 PM ET

Intraday update

15:35 ET: S&P 500 7,723.79 +0.75%, Nasdaq 27,184.36 +1.16%, 10-year 5.277%. Payrolls of +29,000 against a 90,000 consensus cut October Fed-hike odds to 23.8% (Reuters). HY OAS 3.24% (10-01) stays 26bp under the 3.50% gate that would license the financials exit. No written invalidation fired on the 10-01 closes; every pre-committed buy gate remains shut.

Conservative

HOLD all six. VOO $498.19, PG $391.08, WMT $379.25, VIG $395.34, XLF $463.26, SHY $600.56 · cash $2,149.30 (44.07%) · equity $4,876.98. VOO 707.22 is 0.67% under its 712 re-add, the 10-year 5.277% above the 4.75% deployment gate, BRK.B 502.97 a sixth settled close under 507.14. WMT −4.29% vs its 50-day average, short of −6%; PG’s ten-session lag is −2.82pp, inside −3.5pp; XLF’s −4.71pp stays credit-gated.

Neutral

HOLD all six. MSFT $1,453.85, TSM $591.89, COST $504.93, JPM $489.74, XLF $425.16, GOOGL $251.21 · cash $1,263.98 (25.38%) · equity $4,980.78. MSFT 29.19% (cap 60%). TSM +3.25% today and 8.37% above trend into 10-08 sales and 10-15 results, too extended to add. COST is 1.96% under its average, comps due 10-07. Micron's 1,150 rebuild is unmet at 1,074.30, so the cash funds nothing.

Aggressive

HOLD both. NVDA $3,916.54, META $1,058.70 · cash $5.05 · equity $4,980.30. NVDA is 78.64% of the book, 6.0% above its 50-day average, clear of the written $215 trim and $220 break. META lagged the Nasdaq again (+0.13% against +1.16%), but the written trim requires a Nasdaq down day, so it did not fire; its 751.66 re-add is 3.3% away and unfunded.

Update sources


Closing update

The session closed at 16:00 ET; all marks are closing prints. Soft September payrolls, 29,000 against a 90,000 consensus, lifted the tape: the S&P 500 closed 7,722.72 (+0.73%) and the Nasdaq 27,190.86 (+1.19%). The 10-year closed 5.277%; high-yield spreads were 3.24% on 10-01. Three pre-committed exits filled at 09:34 ET and every other decision was a hold.

Conservative: $4,877.68 equity, $2,149.30 cash

JNJ’s 1.6707011 shares were sold at $258.20 and XLV’s 3.35234266 at $166.13, the written 10-01 50-day-average breaks. JNJ closed 256.03, 3.75% under its average and -6.11pp over ten sessions against the index. Six lines were kept. PG 144.91 is 0.57% under its average; WMT 104.26 is a seventh close 4.22% below (108.85), short of the -6% two-close rule; XLF 53.49 stays credit-gated, -5.19pp with high-yield at 3.24% versus the 3.50% trigger. VOO 707.54 is 0.63% under the 712 re-add and the 10-year is above the 4.75% gate. Day +0.16%; total -2.45%.

Neutral: $4,988.04 equity, $1,263.98 cash

XLV’s 4.38461591 shares were sold at $166.13 on the same invalidation; six lines were held. MSFT closed 517.53 (+0.92%), 29.3% of equity against the 60% cap and +3.87pp over ten sessions. TSM closed 472.78 (+2.96%), 11.27% above trend and +7.82pp, too extended to add into 10-08 sales and 10-15 results. COST closed 920.65 (+0.62%), 1.34% under trend but +1.89pp, with September sales on 10-07. JPM 332.38 and XLF 53.49 stay credit-gated. GOOGL closed 343.50 (+1.56%). MU stayed under the 1,150 rebuild, so cash is unchanged. Day +0.73%; total -0.24%.

Aggressive: $4,982.61 equity, $5.05 cash

No trades; both lines were held. NVDA closed 233.95 (+1.34%), 78.6% of equity, 7.18% above its 217.77 average and +4.31pp over ten sessions, clear of the $215 trim and $220 break. META closed 728.08 (+0.30%), +8.42pp, but lagged the Nasdaq again; the relative-strength trim needs a falling tape, so it did not fire, and the 751.66 re-add is 3.24% away. Day +1.11%; total -0.35%.

What changes tomorrow

Monday 2026-10-05 brings the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET. Conservative: VOO must reclaim 712 to release the rate-gated cash, and WMT needs two consecutive closes 6% under its average; BRK.B re-enters on two closes above 507.38. Neutral: TSM into its 10-08 sales, COST into 10-07 sales, and high-yield above 3.50% are the conditions for the cash and for JPM and XLF. Aggressive: NVDA at $215 and $220 stays the trim test; META’s 751.66 re-add is unfunded unless NVDA is cut.

Closing sources

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