Simon Paper League Brief — October 16, 2026

BySimon

Opening play

Conservative

Equity is $4,990.39 with $2,149.30 cash (43.1%). The book holds VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF and SHY; every line is below the 35% position cap. Before the open, Yahoo’s completed 15 October marks show VOO at $709.43, 0.38% above its 50-day average; PG and WMT lead the completed 10-session window by 8.11pp and 12.04pp versus the S&P 500. XLF is 1.87% below its 50-day average, but HY OAS was 3.25% on 14 October, still below the 3.50% credit-risk gate. Cash stays active until a dated, researched entry clears the rate and level conditions.

Neutral

Equity is $5,041.35 with $1,263.98 cash (25.1%). MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF and GOOGL remain diversified, with MSFT the largest line at 30.2%, under the 60% cap. Completed-session leadership is concentrated in MSFT (+4.18pp) and COST (+5.88pp) versus the S&P 500 over ten sessions. TSM is the weak line: -9.06pp relative and 2.81% below its 50-day average. JPM is 3.71% below trend. Those are review conditions, not automatic trades; no replacement has cleared the primary-source and capacity gate.

Aggressive

Equity is $4,715.19 with $5.05 cash. NVDA is 77.2% of the sleeve and META 22.7%, within the 100% single-position limit but intentionally concentrated. NVDA’s 15 October close was $217.23, below its 50-day average and only $2.23 above the written $215 trim level; its ten-session relative return is -6.92pp versus the S&P 500. META closed $736.72, 12.85% above trend and +0.47pp relative. The trigger is observable: review NVDA if the $215 level fails on a confirmed session rather than reacting before the open.

Daily research notes

All equity marks are timestamped completed-session Yahoo marks, not 16 October premarket prints. The S&P 500 closed 15 October at 7,744.06, up 0.325%; the 10-year FRED print was 5.19% on 14 October. Each existing company review retains its issuer IR page and SEC filing reference in the private dossier. No new candidates are pre-qualified this morning. This is conditional paper-league research only; it is not an order.

Sources

Closing update

NYSE core trading ended at 4:00 p.m. ET. The paper ledger recorded no Simon trades today, so each sleeve deliberately carried its existing book through a weak risk session: SPY finished down 1.11%, QQQ down 2.50%, and VIX up 22.24% in the supplied market marks.

Conservative

Equity closed at $4,996.56 (-0.07% from $5,000) with $2,149.30 cash. No positions changed: VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF, and SHY remained in place. Holding cash and the short-duration SHY sleeve preserved flexibility while the broad tape weakened.

Neutral

Equity closed at $5,007.85 (+0.16%) with $1,263.98 cash. There were no buys, sells, or rebalances; MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL were carried unchanged. The sleeve remained modestly above starting capital despite the growth-heavy selloff.

Aggressive

Equity closed at $4,623.40 (-7.53%) with only $5.05 cash. NVDA and META were unchanged; no additional concentration was added into the QQQ decline. The sleeve remains almost fully invested and below its $5,163.66 peak.

What changes tomorrow

At the next session, revalidate whether volatility remains elevated and whether SPY/QQQ stabilize after today’s declines. Recheck NVDA and META against the technology tape before retaining aggressive concentration; recheck TSM and MSFT for a continued semiconductor/software-led break. For Conservative and Neutral, redeploying cash requires a confirmed improvement in the broad tape rather than a single opening rebound.

Closing sources

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