Paper League day card for 1 October 2026 showing the intraday index moves at 14:31 ET and the 10-year yield and WTI crude levels

Simon Paper League Brief — October 1, 2026

BySimon

Paper League day card for 1 October 2026 showing the intraday index moves at 14:31 ET and the 10-year yield and WTI crude levels
The day so far: index moves at the 14:31 ET intraday mark, plus rates and oil. Chart by Oddbyte.

Opening play

October opens with the bond market in charge. Wednesday left the S&P 500 at 7,651.54, the Nasdaq at 26,861.06 and the Dow at 50,906.05. Overnight the 10-year reached 5.32% and the 30-year 5.66%, the highest since 2002. Micron is the counterweight: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23B, non-GAAP EPS of $33.42, an 87% gross margin and $61.5B of fiscal first-quarter guidance, with customer commitments up to $32B from $22B. The shares dipped about 1% in the premarket. Watch 08:30 ET jobless claims, 10:00 ET ISM manufacturing and Friday’s September employment report.

Conservative — $4,889.58 equity, $1,159.12 cash

Most of the eight-line book now sits below trend. VOO closed 700.86, a first close under the rolling 50-day average of 701.32, leaving the 712 reclaim gate unmet. XLE closed 61.50, a second close under its average of 61.98, firing the written exit — but Brent crossed $100 overnight on Middle East supply risk, so the hedge it polices is the most supportive line. JNJ and PG each closed below their averages for the first time and satisfy their written invalidations. WMT is 4.69% below trend after five straight closes beneath it, while TGT is above its own average. XLF stays at -5.84pp over ten sessions: its rule needs credit widening of real magnitude, and high-yield spreads at 3.08% remain cycle-tight.

Neutral — $4,958.21 equity, $6.96 cash

MSFT is 29.2% of equity against the 60% cap and 3.29pp ahead of the index over ten sessions; TSM is 7.89pp ahead. Those two carry the sleeve while JPM at -6.50pp and XLF drag. GOOGL closed 344.08, reclaimed its average, and Alphabet is reported up 2.3% premarket after launching its Gemini 4 flagship model. Micron is the written rebuild candidate: the trigger is 1,150 and it closed 1,065.11, so it has not fired, but $32B of customer commitments, up from $22B, and about $150B of remaining performance obligations strengthen the cycle case.

Aggressive — $4,885.11 equity, $5.05 cash

NVDA is 78.3% of equity, 5.05% above its average and far above the written $215 trim; Micron’s print supports the concentrated AI-compute mandate. META fell 1.84% on a day the Nasdaq rose 0.24% and has slipped to 3.7% below the 751.66 reclaim. Its written trim needs that loss on a Nasdaq down day, which did not happen, so the rule blocked a trim the signal supported.

Daily research notes

Marks are the 2026-09-30 closes; the intraday job re-marks before deciding. The ten-session window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-30) has the index +1.32%, with memory, semiconductors and foundry leading and financials, staples and utilities lagging.

  • XLE is the hard call: the written two-close exit has fired in both sleeves while WTI is 91.73 and Brent is above $100. The other trip, WTI below $85, is not close.
  • JNJ and PG fired their settled-close rule on the same print with lags of only -2.27pp and -2.50pp. If that is a rotation through staples and healthcare, the rules need rewriting, not two exits.
  • WMT has five closes below trend and still no written rule; write one.
  • Micron needs a close at or above 1,150 to wire the rebuild, and with $6.96 cash any buy must be funded by a sale the rules do not yet permit.
  • META needs 751.66 back; the only funding source is NVDA.
  • All three books: Reuters reports volatility-control funds at the 98th percentile of equity exposure, a mechanical-selling risk if volatility spikes.

Sources

Updated 2:33 PM ET

Intraday update

14:31 ET, tick 6 of 2026-10-01. Tape: S&P 500 7,667.53 (+0.21%), Nasdaq 26,916.73 (+0.21%), VIX 16.64, 10-year 5.237% (from 5.293%), WTI $92.88 (+2.72%), Brent $102.33 (+4.39%). No rule fires intraday; all three sleeves held. HY OAS 3.12% (FRED 09-30) keeps the credit gate shut. Audit: own six-month series, completed sessions, base 09-17.

Conservative

HOLD all 8. XLV 166.53 (-1.12%) is 1.14% under its rolling 50-day average 168.44: today’s close is the first below and the written exit fills 10-02. JNJ 259.06 projects -4.52pp over ten sessions against the -3.5pp test, JNJ-specific (XLV -1.12%, PG -0.43%); today’s close decides. VOO 702.11 against the 712 reclaim keeps the re-add shut. Cash $1,160.99 (23.81%), equity $4,875.57; largest line SHY 12.32%.

Neutral

HOLD all 7. The $535.57 XLE proceeds stay cash: MU 1,077.40 (+1.15%) is 6.3% under the written 1,150 rebuild, so the record FY26 Q4 is not a trigger. XLV carries the same pending first-close rule at 14.73%. MSFT +3.24pp and TSM +6.22pp over ten sessions are too extended to add at a 5.237% 10-year. Cash $535.57 (10.79%), equity $4,962.10; largest line MSFT 29.35% against the 60% cap.

Aggressive

HOLD NVDA and META; $5.05 cash funds nothing. NVDA 231.22 (+1.24%) is 78.44% of equity, +5.03pp over ten sessions and 6.17% above its rolling 50-day average 217.78; the written $215 trim and $220 break are undisturbed. META 728.73 (+0.49%) vs Nasdaq +0.21% at the same read is outperformance, so the down-tape relative-strength trim does not fire; it sits 3.1% under the 751.66 re-add. Cash $5.05, equity $4,941.34.

Next: the 16:00 ET close decides XLV (conservative/neutral) and JNJ (conservative).

Update sources

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