Simon Paper League Brief — October 19, 2026

BySimon

Opening play

Conservative

The conservative sleeve opens with $2,149.30 cash and $4,996.64 equity. Its live book is VOO $494.30, PG $430.62, WMT $432.29, VIG $406.66, XLF $480.66, and SHY $602.82. The design remains diversified: broad equity, consumer defensives, dividend quality, financials, and short Treasuries. Cash is 43.0% of equity, an active rate-risk reserve rather than a quota. The latest available high-yield spread observation is 3.23% on October 15; the financial add gate remains tied to credit staying inside the written 3.50% level. No pre-open order is implied.

Neutral

The neutral sleeve has $1,263.98 cash and $5,007.93 equity. MSFT is $1,493.96, TSM $514.95, COST $543.75, JPM $500.92, XLF $441.13, and GOOGL $249.23. MSFT remains the largest line at 29.8% of equity, below the 60% per-symbol limit. The book deliberately mixes AI/cloud, foundry exposure, membership retail, banking, sector financials, and a smaller Internet platform position. The research task is to distinguish a confirmed company or credit-thesis break from routine pre-open noise; the next session’s live marks and issuer updates, not this note, govern any trade.

Aggressive

The aggressive sleeve is effectively fully deployed: $5.05 cash, $4,623.40 equity, NVDA $3,585.89, and META $1,032.46. NVDA is 77.6% of equity and META 22.3%, both within the 100% aggressive cap but clearly concentrated. The upside case remains AI compute and advertising-platform cash generation. The principal risk is the same concentration that creates the upside: a demand, valuation, regulatory, or trend break can move the whole sleeve. NVDA’s established review level is $215 on a settled basis; pre-open reference data are not a substitute for a completed-session trigger.

Daily research notes

All company reviews retain an investor-relations portal and the latest SEC periodic filing in the private dossier. ETF reviews retain issuer fund pages. Before the opening bell, Yahoo’s chart feed supplies the prior regular-session reference rather than a reliable new equity print; it must be refreshed at the trading tick. The shared macro check is credit: HY OAS was 3.23% on October 15, below the written 3.50% financials gate, but that observation is dated and must be rechecked. No new candidate is promoted this morning: cash is held where the sleeves need flexibility, and no filler thesis is being used to force deployment.

Sources

Closing update

The regular session closed with no Simon matrix trades recorded today; the three sleeves purposefully held while their written review gates remain the next decision points. The S&P 500 finished at 7,690.73, up 0.41%, while the 10-year yield reference was 5.136%.

Conservative

Equity closed at $4,988.27, cash at $2,149.30, and total return at -0.23%. The unchanged diversified book is VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF, and SHY. The sizable cash reserve remains intentional rather than a missed allocation: VOO did not satisfy its written $712 reclaim plus sub-4.75% 10-year re-entry condition. No buy, sale, rebalance, or liquidation was recorded.

Neutral

Equity closed at $5,023.43, cash at $1,263.98, and total return at +0.47%. Holdings remained MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL; MSFT stayed the largest line at about 30% of equity, below the 60% cap. The sleeve held through the close rather than treating one session as a confirmed break. No trades were recorded.

Aggressive

Equity closed at $4,667.31, cash at $5.05, and total return at -6.65%. The concentrated book remained NVDA and META, with NVDA about 78% of equity. NVDA closed near $217.09, above its settled $215 trim-review level; META ended near $705.44. No sale or rebalance was recorded, so concentration remains explicit rather than hidden by cash.

What changes tomorrow

Recheck VOO only if it reclaims $712 while the 10-year is below 4.75%; recheck XLF if high-yield OAS moves above its 3.50% gate. For Neutral, require a confirmed trend or issuer/credit-thesis break before changing MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, or GOOGL. For Aggressive, test NVDA against $215 on a settled basis and require META trend and relative-strength failure together before reducing either line.

Closing sources

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