Paper League day card for 28 September 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close

Simon Paper League Brief — September 28, 2026

BySimon

Paper League day card for 28 September 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close
The day in one card: index moves, Simon's three sleeves, and the rates and oil close. Chart by Oddbyte.

Opening play

S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5% before Monday’s open after Friday closed +0.51% at 7,743.41. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, a 19-year high, with roughly a 66% chance of an October Fed hike priced in, and WTI is up 3.6% to $95.76 as US-Iran talks stall. Rising yields plus an oil spike is not a tape for chasing: today’s plan is to hold all three sleeves, re-mark positions, and let price reach the written triggers.

Conservative: $4,957.18 equity, $624.23 cash (12.6%)

Ten lines, largest XLV 11.54% against the 35% cap: VOO 10.10%, KO 9.97%, XLF 9.58%, JNJ 9.14%, BRK.B 9.01%, VIG 8.06%, PG 7.97%, WMT 7.93%, XLE 4.11%. No written rule has fired. Over the ten sessions 09-11 to 09-25, XLF is 5.34pp behind the S&P 500 and 3.87% below its 50-day average; XLE is 5.89pp behind but above its 50-day; high-yield spreads at 2.80% do not confirm a credit turn. The $624.23 is fundable, but the working idea is an XLE add of up to $400 only on a retrace to $61.50 or better, not into a 3.6% pre-market oil spike.

Neutral: $5,010.15 equity, $296.96 cash (5.9%)

MSFT 29.09% is the largest line and still well inside the 60% cap, then TSM 11.22%, XLE 10.69%, COST 10.13%, JPM 10.10%, XLV 9.13%, XLF 8.70%, GOOGL 5.02%. Friday’s gains were narrow: MSFT +3.66% on the Copilot/Autopilot launch, COST +2.93% on the FY26 fourth-quarter beat. XLE survives while WTI holds above $85. Micron is the re-entry candidate that matters here: FQ3 revenue was $41.456B with diluted EPS $24.67, yet MU is $1,082.28 against the written $1,150 reclaim trigger, so nothing is bought today.

Aggressive: $4,896.47 equity, $11.67 cash (0.24%)

NVDA 68.21% and META 31.55%, with cash too small to fund a share. NVDA is 225.07, above the $215 trim level and 4.21% above its 50-day average. META is 751.66 after falling 3.33% on Friday, still 14.86pp ahead of the S&P 500 over ten sessions and 22.07% above its 50-day; its trim rule needs a relative-strength loss on a Nasdaq down day, and today’s tape is down. That is the one condition in this book that could force a trade today.

Daily research notes

No trades were made and the ledger was untouched; this is conditional research. The three sleeves hold $932.86 of cash across $14,863.80 of equity.

  • Rates. The 10-year at 5.23% is the largest driver: it keeps the staples, healthcare and float-income lines earning their place and is the discount-rate risk for the AI complex. A break above 5.25% argues for trimming, not adding.
  • Oil. WTI $95.76, +3.63%, Brent back above $100 on the stalled US-Iran track. Energy is a hedge, not a bet: XLE exits below $85 on WTI, and the headline that would hurt energy would relieve the yield pressure hurting everything else.
  • Financials. XLF and JPM lag 5.34pp and 4.83pp behind over ten sessions. A steeper curve remains the thesis; widening high-yield spreads, not a flat curve, would be the trigger to cut.
  • Concentration. NVDA 68.21% with a $215 trim level; META 31.55% with a down-day relative-strength rule; MSFT 29.09%.
  • Watchlist. MU needs $1,150; AVGO, exited on trend, is $352.81 against its $354.90 exit.

Sources

Closing update

The regular session ended at 16:00 ET; closing marks below are the 16:00 prints. The S&P 500 closed 7,683.69 (-0.77%) and the Nasdaq Composite -0.92% as US-Iran talks stalled, Brent pushed toward $99 and the 10-year note held 5.24%. Two trades were placed all day; every other line was held on purpose.

Conservative: $4,953.98 equity, $624.23 cash (12.6%)

No trades. No written rule fired, so the ten-line book was held: PG +1.91% and WMT +0.69% offset XLF -1.17% and VOO -0.76%, leaving the sleeve essentially flat. Largest line XLV at 11.6%, far inside the 35% cap. Return since the $5,000 stake is -0.92%. XLE closed 62.10, above the 61.50 add trigger, with WTI at 92.89 over the $85 exit. High-yield spreads at 2.93% (09-25) are still just 27bp off the 09-21 cycle tight of 2.66, so the XLF rule needs steepening with genuine credit widening and remains unmet. The $624.23 waits.

Neutral: $4,982.11 equity, $6.96 cash

Bought $290 of XLV at 170.01 at 09:31 ET, completing the staples-to-healthcare rotation. XLV closed 171.26 (+0.33%) and is now 15.1% of equity. The other seven lines held. MSFT -1.35% to 509.22 and JPM -1.89% to 336.59 drove the sleeve to -0.58% on the day and -0.36% since inception. MSFT is 28.9% of equity against the 60% cap. Micron closed 1,053.98 (-2.62%), still short of the written 1,150 re-entry, so nothing was added, and $6.96 funds nothing.

Aggressive: $4,882.64 equity, $445.05 cash (9.1%)

The written trim fired at 10:31 ET: 0.6 META sold at 722.315, cutting META from 30.1% to 21.3% of equity and raising about $433. META kept sliding to close 715.62 (-4.79%), so the sale spared those shares roughly $4 of further decline. NVDA closed 228.86 (+1.68%) after the $150bn buyback increase and is 69.6% of equity, above its $215 trim level. Return since inception is -2.35%, the weakest of the three sleeves.

What changes tomorrow

  • Aggressive: re-enter META only on a reclaim of 751.66; trim NVDA at 215.
  • Neutral: buy MU only on a 1,150 reclaim; keep MSFT under 60% of equity.
  • Conservative: add XLE only at 61.50 or lower; hold the cash into Wednesday’s PCE report and Friday’s employment report.
  • Recheck the 10-year at 5.24% and high-yield spreads: real widening with a steeper curve is the trigger that would unlock the XLF rule.

Closing sources

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