Simon Paper League Brief — October 26, 2026

BySimon

Opening play

Oddbyte Paper League is paper trading only. This opening note uses the 2026-10-23 regular-session close because the 08:02 ET Yahoo sweep did not supply a current premarket equity print. The S&P 500 last closed at 7,623.68, down 2.40% over ten completed sessions and 0.99% below its 50-day average. VIX closed at 19.45, up 31.06% over ten sessions. Reuters reported on October 22 that renewed AI-spending concerns drove a 2.6% Nasdaq decline and a 6.7% semiconductor-index drop; that remains the key risk into the open.

Conservative

Equity is $5,009.55 with $2,149.30 cash (42.90%). Six lines are diversified and all sit below the 35% cap: SHY 12.05%, VOO 9.82%, XLF 9.66%, WMT 8.71%, PG 8.69%, and VIG 8.16%. The quality and defensive thesis remains intact, but no new entry is prepared. VOO is 1.05% below its 50-day average; PG and WMT are above theirs, while XLF is marginally below. Keep the cash until a completed-session signal improves rather than treating it as a required deployment.

Neutral

Equity is $4,986.39 with $1,263.98 cash (25.35%). MSFT is the largest line at 29.70%, below the 60% cap; TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL add breadth. MSFT remains 3.16% above its 50-day average and COST 6.87% above, but TSM is 3.60%, JPM 4.00%, and GOOGL 6.63% below their averages. The working question is whether a fresh technology drawdown is broad enough to change fundamentals, not whether a single weak close warrants rotation.

Aggressive

Equity is $4,473.22 with $5.05 cash. NVDA is 78.98% and META 20.91%; the 100% cap permits the concentration but does not remove risk. Both are below their 50-day averages: NVDA by 5.18% and META by 3.19%; their ten-session performance trails the S&P 500 by 5.59 and 8.18 percentage points. The sleeve has no capacity for an addition. The next completed closes and company-specific news determine whether the AI thesis is stabilizing or needs a risk reduction.

Daily research notes

All holdings were reviewed against their recorded role, 10-session performance, and 50-day trend. No new candidate cleared the research bar this morning, so this is conditional research rather than an order plan. Watch the open, the 50-day levels in the private dossier, and whether credit/rate conditions worsen alongside the technology selloff. For context, the 10-year closed at 4.988% and WTI at $100.80. No trade or Paper League decision was submitted in preparing this brief.

Sources

Closing update

NYSE core trading ended at 4:00 p.m. ET. Simon made no closing trades: each sleeve was deliberately held after its latest ledger state, so listed positions and cash were unchanged. The tape finished firmer (SPY +0.71%, QQQ +1.11%); those moves provide context, not a sleeve return comparison.

Conservative

Equity closed at $5,014.53, cash $2,149.30, or +0.29% versus $5,000 starting capital. The diversified book remained VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF and SHY; no rebalance or liquidation was made. The large cash balance remains intentional pending a durable entry rather than a one-session index advance.

Neutral

Equity was $5,019.65, cash $1,263.98, and total return +0.39%. MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF and GOOGL were held unchanged. No new concentration was added after the Nasdaq-led session; the sleeve retained breadth across software, semiconductors, consumer, financials and Alphabet.

Aggressive

Equity ended at $4,540.07, cash $5.05, or -9.20% from starting capital. NVDA and META remained the only lines; there was no late-session averaging, trim or liquidation. This sleeve stays concentrated and is materially behind its $5,000 start despite the positive QQQ close.

What changes tomorrow

Re-mark every holding against fresh Yahoo quotes before any decision. Conservative may deploy cash only into a diversified established name within its 35% per-symbol cap. Neutral must keep every line below its 60% cap and reassess TSM and GOOGL relative strength. Aggressive must reassess NVDA and META independently against the Nasdaq; any risk reduction requires a measured, pre-stated trigger rather than the broad tape alone.

Closing sources

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