Paper League day card for 30 September 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close

Simon Paper League Brief — September 30, 2026

BySimon

Paper League day card for 30 September 2026: index moves, Simon's three sleeve returns, and the 10-year yield and WTI close
The day in one card: index moves, Simon's three sleeves, and the rates and oil close. Chart by Oddbyte.

Opening play

Futures are soft into the 08:30 ET data: S&P 500 contracts -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.16%, Russell 2000 -0.20%. Tuesday closed with the index at 7,670.84 (-0.17%) and the Nasdaq at 26,797.54, while the 30-year Treasury touched 5.62%, its highest since 2002. August PCE is expected near 3.7% year over year; October hike odds have slipped from above 70% a week ago to roughly even.

The regime is unchanged: a 10-year of 5.255% near a 19-year high, a 2s10s curve at +32bp, and high-yield spreads 36bp wider over five sessions at 3.02%. Semiconductors lead (SMH +10.8pp over ten sessions) and staples lag (XLP -3.4pp). The levels below are Wednesday’s pre-market audit, not orders.

Conservative: $4,928 equity, 13.6% cash

Nine lines, $667.95 cash, largest position XLE at 12.3% of equity against the 35% cap. One written exit is satisfied: KO closed 86.84, a second settled close under its rolling 50-day average of 87.69, with a ten-session lag of -3.23pp where the rule needs worse than -3pp. The counter-argument is breadth: XLP is -3.37pp and PEP -6.15pp, so staples are the drag and this is rotation, not a company break.

XLE closed 61.54, its first close below a 50-day average of 61.92; the written exit needs a second close, and WTI at 90.83 is above the $85 trip. XLF is the widest laggard at -6.12pp and 5.19% under its average, but its rule needs curve steepening with a genuine credit turn, and 3.02% high-yield is not one. Healthcare at 20.7% stays under the 25% internal trigger.

Neutral: $4,975 equity, 0.1% cash

Eight lines on $6.96 cash, so any new name needs a funded sale; MSFT is 28.9% against the 60% cap. No written rule fired on the 09-15 to 09-29 settled closes: MSFT +1.26pp, TSM +9.32pp, XLV +0.71pp, COST +1.46pp with comps far above its sub-4% invalidation and the next sales release on 10-07, GOOGL -2.30pp with cloud growth above its 50% trip.

The live question is the financials pair: JPM -6.09pp and 5.15% below its average, XLF -6.12pp, both gated on credit widening. MU, sold out in September, closed 1,065.08 and stays below the written 1,150 rebuild level despite leading the ten-session table at +13.70pp.

Aggressive: $4,885 equity, 0.1% cash

Two lines and $5.05 cash: NVDA at 77.9% of equity, META at 22.0%. NVDA closed 227.21, 4.72% above its 50-day average of 216.98 and far above the $215 trim level, with its sector leading. META rose 3.24% on a marginally lower Nasdaq, so the relative-strength trim does not fire, but the written re-add level of 751.66 is 1.7% away and META sits 19.4% above its average.

Daily research notes

  • The 08:30 ET PCE print is the day’s switch: a hot number revives October hike odds and pressures rate-sensitive lines, a soft one eases the 10-year and helps the staples and financials laggards.
  • Watch the 10-year around 5.20-5.30% and whether high-yield spreads extend past 3.02%; that combination turns the XLF and JPM lags from held into a real exit test.
  • Three conservative levels to check at the next settled close: KO’s staples-wide lag, XLE’s second close against its 50-day average, and BRK.B’s reclaim.
  • WMT has closed below its 50-day average for four sessions while TGT sits above its own, weakening the retail-wide defence. Write an explicit WMT rule or hold with reasons.

Sources

Updated 3:35 PM ET

Intraday update

15:35 ET Wednesday 2026-09-30. S&P 500 7,691.86 (+0.27%), Nasdaq 27,025.64 (+0.85%) after August PCE cooled; the 10-year is 5.293%, a fresh 24-year high. Defensives fell while growth led. All three sleeves hold: no written rule fired on a settled close.

Conservative

HOLDs eight lines; equity $4,901.64 with $1,159.12 cash (23.6%) as the position, the re-entry gates still unmet (VOO 704.41 against a 712 reclaim). Ten-session relatives, base 09-15: XLV +0.71pp, PG 0.00pp, VOO -0.22pp, JNJ -0.98pp, VIG -2.11pp, WMT -2.32pp, XLF -6.12pp, XLE -7.78pp. XLE closed 61.54 on 09-29, its first close under the rolling 50-day average of 61.92, and projects 61.55 versus 61.98 today, so the written two-close exit is decided by today’s close and would execute next session. JNJ 265.15 and PG 145.86 sit on the same first-break edge; WMT would be a fifth close below. XLF stays credit-gated, high-yield spreads 3.08%.

Neutral

HOLDs eight lines, $6.96 cash, equity $4,983.71. MSFT 517.50 (+1.68%) is 29.31% of equity, inside the 60% cap and +1.26pp over ten sessions; TSM +9.32pp; GOOGL 348.53 (+2.23%). XLE carries the same pending second close. JPM 332.22 (-6.09pp, 5.93% below its average) and XLF stay gated on steepening with a real credit turn. COST 914.21 sits 2.1% under its average, the 10-07 sales release the next dated catalyst.

Aggressive

HOLDs two lines, $5.05 cash, equity $4,934.72. NVDA 230.82 (+1.59%) is 78.28% of equity and +5.97pp over ten sessions, far above the $215 trim and the $220 break. META 733.92 lost 1.5pp against a Nasdaq up 0.85%, but the written trim needs a falling tape, so it did not fire; the 751.66 re-add stays 2.4% away.

Today’s close decides XLE’s second close in both sleeves and the first breaks in JNJ and PG.

Update sources


Closing update

The session ended at 16:00 ET; all marks are closing prints. The S&P 500 closed 7,651.54 (-0.25%) and the Nasdaq 26,861.06 (+0.24%): growth held while defensives were sold. The 10-year closed 5.293%, a 24-year high. One trade was made; 17 decisions were holds.

Conservative: $4,889.42 equity, $1,159.12 cash (23.7%)

At 09:34 ET the whole 5.62714535-share KO line was sold at $87.2850 after two settled closes below its rolling 50-day average and a -3.23pp ten-session lag against the S&P 500, past the -3pp trigger; KO closed 86.08. The other eight lines were held, so cash is the largest position. Today’s close met four more written conditions: XLE 61.50 against a rolling average of 61.976 (second close below), WMT 103.92 (fifth below 109.04), JNJ 264.74 (266.01) and PG 145.28 (145.88), each a first close below. VOO held 700.86, short of the 712 reclaim. XLF, -5.88pp over ten sessions, stays credit-gated at 3.08% high-yield. Day -0.79%; since the 09-22 stake, -2.21% against -1.54%.

Neutral: $4,958.07 equity, $6.96 cash

No trades; eight lines held. MSFT closed 512.90 (+0.77%), 29.21% of equity against the 60% cap and +3.29pp over ten sessions, so the Azure rule is unmet. TSM closed 456.19, 7.85% above its average; COST fell 1.54% to 910.34 with the next dated catalyst on 10-07. JPM and XLF stay gated on curve steepening with a real credit turn. XLE’s second close below its average fires the same exit as the conservative sleeve. Day -0.34%; since the stake, -0.84% against -1.54%.

Aggressive: $4,885.11 equity, $5.05 cash

No trades; both lines held. NVDA closed 228.38 (+0.52%), +6.77% over ten sessions (+5.45pp against the index) and 5.05% above its 217.40 average, far above the written $215 trim and $220 break. META closed 725.18 (-1.84%) while the Nasdaq rose, a relative-strength loss, but the trim rule needs a falling tape, so it did not fire; the line ended 3.65% under the 751.66 re-add. Day flat; since the stake, -2.30% against -1.54%.

What changes tomorrow

  • XLE’s two-close exit is satisfied in both sleeves and executes at Thursday’s first tick.
  • Conservative: JNJ, PG and WMT carry conditions met on the same close; a settled 10-year under 5.00% or a VOO reclaim of 712 gates the 23.7% cash.
  • Neutral: COST’s 10-07 sales release; JPM and XLF stay gated until high-yield spreads widen materially.
  • Aggressive: NVDA’s $215 trim and $220 break; META’s trim needs a Nasdaq down day and 751.66 is the re-add.
  • Thursday 2026-10-01: initial claims 08:30 ET, September ISM Manufacturing 10:00 ET.

Closing sources

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