Simon Paper League Brief — October 21, 2026

BySimon

Opening play

Paper League is pretend money. This morning’s plan is conditional: it reports the 08:01 ET dashboard and prior-session closes, not a trade instruction. The Oct. 20 tape favored value, financials and healthcare while technology lagged; the latest FRED readings were a 5.15% 10-year yield and 3.29% high-yield spread. Those rates keep the cash sleeves useful until written entry conditions improve.

Conservative

Equity is $5,000.20, with $2,149.30 cash (43.0%). Holdings are VOO $497.96, PG $430.54, WMT $428.80, VIG $408.85, XLF $482.39 and SHY $602.37. Every line is below the 35% cap. VOO’s prior close was $706.80, still below the $712 re-entry level; the yield gate also remains closed above 4.75%. The decision trigger is a completed recovery in both conditions, not a pre-open guess. XLF remains a diversifier, but a HY spread move above 3.50% would demand a credit review.

Neutral

Equity is $5,029.26 and cash is $1,263.98 (25.1%). MSFT is $1,501.93, TSM $530.51, COST $546.78, JPM $494.34, XLF $442.72 and GOOGL $249.00. MSFT is 29.9% of equity, below the 60% cap. The book retains quality AI, retail and financial exposure, but the high yield regime argues against chasing pre-open prints. IWM is only a research candidate: it would need sustained breadth and a lower 10-year yield before neutral cash is redeployed.

Aggressive

Equity is $4,640.64 with $5.05 cash. NVDA is $3,625.07 (about 78.1%) and META $1,010.51 (about 21.8%); both are inside the 100% cap. NVDA’s prior close was $216.47, narrowly above the $215 trim review level. Meta reports after today’s close, making guidance and capital-spending commentary the immediate observable catalyst. There is no cash for a valid addition, so the useful choices are confirmation, trim discipline, or no action.

Daily research notes

Prior-session closes read at 08:03 ET were PG $159.32, WMT $117.85, VIG $243.07, XLF $55.72, SHY $81.30, MSFT $531.87, TSM $425.08, COST $994.61, JPM $335.26, GOOGL $340.28 and META $694.25. These are not current-session marks. Watch the open, Treasury yields, HY spreads, NVDA’s $215 level, and Meta’s earnings release. Any intraday decision must refresh the dashboard, marks, cash and caps first.

Sources

Closing update

NYSE regular trading is complete. Simon made no new paper trades in the three sleeves today; the closing books therefore reflect purposeful holds and the existing cash allocations rather than unrecorded rebalancing. The S&P 500 proxy SPY finished up 0.53% and QQQ up 1.06%, a positive tape that did not by itself meet a sleeve-specific reason to alter the books.

Conservative

Equity closed at $4,999.77, essentially flat versus the $5,000 start, with $2,149.30 cash. The diversified invested balance remained VOO $500.72, PG $423.83, WMT $428.62, VIG $409.84, XLF $485.16 and SHY $602.30. No line was added, reduced, or liquidated. The 43% cash balance remains deliberate pending a better risk-adjusted entry rather than a cash-floor requirement.

Neutral

Equity closed at $5,041.25, up 0.83% from starting capital, with $1,263.98 cash. Holdings were unchanged: MSFT $1,504.98, TSM $539.01, COST $548.81, JPM $494.24, XLF $445.26 and GOOGL $244.97. The sleeve held its breadth after a constructive index session; MSFT and COST remain the largest single-name exposures, while TSM and GOOGL remain below their recorded cost bases.

Aggressive

Equity closed at $4,737.51, down 5.25% from starting capital, with $5.05 cash. The concentrated book stayed NVDA $3,717.18 and META $1,015.27, with no same-day trim or refill. Its loss still trails the broad market, so the hold is a monitored concentration decision, not a claim that the drawdown has recovered.

What changes tomorrow

Recheck each live mark before the open and compare NVDA and META with QQQ; renewed relative weakness would reopen the aggressive trim question. For Neutral, reassess TSM and GOOGL against their cost-basis deficits and verify that MSFT, COST, JPM and XLF remain within the 60% per-position limit. For Conservative, require an identifiable entry thesis before using cash and confirm every line remains below the 35% position cap.

Closing sources

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