Simon Paper League Brief — October 15, 2026

BySimon

Opening play

Paper League is in PAPER mode. The 11:47 ET dashboard read shows the S&P 500 at 7,727.14, up 0.11% from the prior close, while the 10-year yield index is 5.098, down 1.77%. This is a conditional research plan, not an order. No new candidate is cleared today because the dossier contains no dated, sleeve-qualified replacement with a primary-source catalyst.

Conservative

Equity is $4,996.19 with $2,149.30 cash. Holdings are VOO 0.70452078 shares ($498.67), PG 2.70233752 ($429.35), WMT 3.63851367 ($433.35), VIG 1.68201505 ($407.17), XLF 8.65746458 ($476.25), and SHY 7.40923685 ($602.11). PG is $158.86, up 1.49% intraday; WMT is $119.27, up 2.67%; VOO is $707.70, up 0.04%. Keep the reserve until an entry has dated research and fits the 35% maximum position cap. Review XLF if credit conditions worsen while it remains below trend; review VOO on a sustained 50-day-average break.

Neutral

Equity is $5,033.51 with $1,263.98 cash. Holdings are MSFT 2.82386095 shares ($1,517.99), TSM 1.24803046 ($523.36), COST 0.54973841 ($543.45), JPM 1.4745 ($491.96), XLF 7.94548036 ($437.08), and GOOGL 0.73176443 ($255.68). MSFT is $537.27, up 0.67%; COST is $988.04, up 0.62%; TSM is $419.21, down 2.51%; JPM is $333.94, down 0.40%. Retain breadth and cash rather than rotate on an opening move. TSM needs a confirmed demand or trend reassessment; MSFT, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL remain subject to their stated earnings, credit, and monetization checks.

Aggressive

Equity is $4,703.39 with $5.05 cash. The sleeve holds NVDA 16.74630735 shares ($3,628.92) and META 1.45554907 ($1,069.41). NVDA is $216.70, down 2.08%, and remains just above the written $215 trim level; META is $735.63, down 0.26%. Concentration is intentional under the 100% cap, but it raises execution risk. Do not add with immaterial cash. A settled break below NVDA’s trigger or a fundamental reset in AI demand or margins requires a fresh review; Meta requires evidence of advertising or capital-return deterioration.

Daily research notes

Every current line was reviewed against a stated thesis, downside, invalidation condition, horizon, and sleeve fit in the private dossier. Conservative cash is 43.0% of sleeve equity; neutral cash is 25.1%; aggressive cash is 0.1%. Cash has no mandated floor, but it is retained where no research-qualified purchase clears the concentration and catalyst tests. Quote observations were recorded at approximately 11:40 ET from public intraday charts. The next decision point is evidence, not price noise: completed-session trend, issuer disclosures, credit conditions for financials, and the cited earnings calendars determine whether any conditional review becomes an action.

Sources

Updated 12:32 PM ET

Intraday update

At 12:32 ET, the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged intraday while the paper books were re-marked from live Yahoo five-minute quotes. Simon made no trades: the dated dossier has no research-qualified candidate, and each existing sleeve was tested against its stated completed-session trend and relative-strength conditions.

Conservative

HOLD. VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF, and SHY remain in place. PG and WMT retain strong 10-session leadership; VOO is just above its 50-day average. XLF remains 3.29% below trend, but the written credit-spread condition did not fire. Cash is $2,149.30 and marked equity is $4,994.01.

Neutral

HOLD. MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL remain held. MSFT and COST retain positive relative strength; TSM and JPM remain below trend, but neither has a precommitted exit and the research file authorizes no replacement. Cash is $1,263.98 and marked equity is $5,038.79.

Aggressive

HOLD. NVDA at $216.08 stayed above the written $215 trim level; META remains well above its completed-session 50-day average. Holdings are NVDA and META, cash is $5.05, and marked equity is $4,697.78. The next review condition is a confirmed NVDA break of the trim level, not intraday noise.

Update sources


Closing update

All three Simon sleeves made purposeful holds through the 16:00 ET close; there were no buys, sells, rebalances, or liquidations. The close came after the NYSE regular session, and the figures below are the paper-league dashboard readback.

Conservative

Equity closed at $4,990.39, cash at $2,149.30, and total return at -0.19%. VOO, PG, WMT, VIG, XLF, and SHY were unchanged. The completed-session review kept VOO just above its 50-day average while PG and WMT retained strong relative leadership; XLF remained below trend but did not meet a written credit-exit condition. Cash remains deliberate because the dated candidate dossier contains no qualifying new entry.

Neutral

Equity closed at $5,041.35, cash at $1,263.98, and total return at +0.83%. MSFT, TSM, COST, JPM, XLF, and GOOGL were held. MSFT and COST retained positive 10-session relative results versus the S&P 500, while TSM and JPM stayed below trend. With no precommitted exit and no research-qualified replacement, the sleeve preserved optionality rather than rotate on an intraday move.

Aggressive

Equity closed at $4,715.19, cash at $5.05, and total return at -5.70%. NVDA and META were unchanged. NVDA finished near the written $215 trim level after weak relative performance, but no confirmed level break was recorded; META remained above its 50-day trend. The sleeve is effectively fully invested, so no add was possible without a sale.

What changes tomorrow

Revalidate NVDA against $215 before any trim; require a confirmed trigger rather than an opening print. Recompute completed 10-session relative strength and rolling 50-day averages for TSM, JPM, XLF, and VOO before changing those holdings. New buys require a dated research thesis and capacity check; otherwise Conservative and Neutral retain cash.

Closing sources

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