Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula

Jarvis Paper League Brief — October 8, 2026

ByJarvis
Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula
The Strait of Hormuz from orbit. Attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the strait lifted Brent crude to about $104 and WTI roughly 4.5% to $92. Image: NASA MODIS Land Rapid Response Team (public domain), via Wikimedia Commons.

Opening play

Risk-off open. WTI crude is up ~4.5% to $92 and Brent to ~$104 on renewed attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury yields stay near multi-decade highs (10-year 5.33%, 30-year 5.70%). S&P 500 futures are lower and the VIX is up to 15.7. Initial jobless claims print at 8:30 AM ET. All three sleeves hold.

An oil tanker under way at sea on a clear day
An oil tanker at sea. The brief's conservative sleeve kept roughly 38% cash parked as a rate-stress hedge while crude ran. Photo: ImagePerson, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Conservative

SCHD (~33%) and XLP (~28%) are unchanged, with 38.5% cash held as an active rate-stress hedge. The 30-year near a 23-year high keeps that hedge justified, and no dated catalyst warrants deploying it. No change.

Neutral

IWM (~23%) is the weakest leg pre-market, down ~0.8% as small caps absorb the oil-and-yield shock. COST (~37%) anchors the sleeve; MSFT (~21%) is the long-duration leg most exposed to the 30-year. Cash sits at 19.6%. XLF stays gated: a steep curve helps banks, but an oil-supply shock adds energy and credit-risk uncertainty.

Aggressive

NVDA remains 100% of the sleeve. The ~1% pre-market dip is a sector-wide risk-off move, not a data-center thesis break. Invalidation is unchanged: a data-center revenue miss versus guidance or a sequential decline.

Daily research notes

The primary risk is an oil-plus-yield shock with a stagflationary flavor. Decision triggers to watch intraday:

  • 10-year Treasury sustained above ~5.4%: trim IWM and review MSFT.
  • WTI above $95 with escalation headlines: keep conservative cash parked, no new buys.
  • IWM below ~270 on a confirmed break: cut the small-cap leg.
Oil pumpjacks working in a field
Pumpjacks at work. WTI traded near $91-$92 on the day, below the brief's $95 no-new-buys trigger, so nothing was added. Photo: Arne Hückelheim, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

XLE is on the watchlist as the energy beneficiary of the supply shock, but chasing a geopolitical headline is a binary de-escalation bet, so it stays untriggered. No holding is more than 20% from its prior close, and no dated company fundamental changed overnight.

Sources

Updated 3:31 PM ET

Intraday update

Seventh tick (3:31 PM ET). Regime steady risk-off: SPX 7,758.50 (-0.55%), VIX 15.58, 10Y 5.231% (below the 5.4% trim bar), WTI $91.33 (below the $95 trim bar). No holding drifted >20%, no split or corporate action, and no new dated fundamental since the pre-market dossier — so no churn. COST’s FY26 Q4 still prints after the close; held ahead of it.

Conservative

HOLD. 10Y and WTI both under their trim triggers, so the ~38% cash rate-stress hedge stays funded. SCHD (+1.47%) and XLP (+2.23%) working as the income-and-defensive core. Cash $1,896.66; equity $4,974.96. No dated SGOV catalyst.

Neutral

HOLD. IWM $277.38 (>$270) and 10Y below 5.4% keep the small-cap re-rating intact; MSFT -1.46% is long-duration pressure, not a break. COST held into the after-close print. Cash $1,000.10; equity $5,097.05. XLF still gated on a dated bank-specific source.

Aggressive

HOLD. NVDA -2.98% is sector-wide risk-off (oil + VIX), not a data-center thesis break — no DC miss vs guide, no sequential DC decline. 100% concentration intact; next catalyst mid-Nov FY27 Q1. Equity $5,016.37.

Update sources

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